The U.S. trucking industry is entering 2026 with cautious optimism. After three years of oversupply and compressed margins, analysts see real signs of market rebalancing that could finally favor carriers.

Capacity Contraction Accelerating

According to ACT Research's November 2025 outlook, capacity is tightening gradually as Class 8 builds decline and carrier profitability remains under strain. Used truck prices are stabilizing after months of decline, and tractor market inventories are normalizing.

C.H. Robinson projects that if current carrier attrition continues, the number of carriers with operating authority will return to historical levels by early 2026. This marks the first meaningful supply correction since the 2021 freight boom.

Regulatory pressures are adding to capacity constraints. Enhanced enforcement on CDL requirements, English-language proficiency standards, and ELD compliance could remove additional capacity from the market. Industry observers note the driver pool faces heightened scrutiny heading into the new year.

Rate Outlook Improving

C.H. Robinson recently revised its 2026 spot rate forecast upward, now projecting a 6% year-over-year increase compared to its earlier 4% estimate. The revision reflects expectations for greater rate volatility as the market approaches equilibrium.

Contract rates are expected to see mid-single-digit increases. Dry van and refrigerated freight are both projected at roughly 2% year-over-year gains, with potential for stronger performance if demand cooperates.

Tender rejection rates are climbing, a key indicator that available trucks are shrinking relative to freight demand. This metric deterioration signals tighter conditions ahead for shippers who have enjoyed favorable rates since 2023.

Operating Costs Remain Elevated

Carriers face continued cost pressures even as rates improve. The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) reports truckload operating costs rose nearly 4% in 2024, excluding fuel. This increase compounds a three-year operating cost inflation stack of 25%.

ATRI data indicates this inflation trend continued into 2025, with Q1 costs up nearly 2% compared to full-year 2024. Higher equipment prices tied to tariffs and EPA 2027 emissions standards uncertainty are weighing on fleet investment decisions.

What Carriers Should Expect

Industry analysts project 2026 will bring moderate growth rather than a dramatic boom. The National Association for Business Economics and other forecasters expect freight volumes to improve gradually, tracking overall economic growth of 1-2%.

Fleets are shifting strategy from expansion to replacement. Rather than adding trucks, most carriers are focused on extending asset life and replacing aged equipment only when necessary. This conservative approach is helping rebalance capacity with demand.

The freight recession appears to be ending, but recovery will be gradual. Carriers who tightened operations, improved visibility, and automated workflows during the downturn are positioned to capture margin improvements as rates recover.

Those efficiency gains made in difficult times become profit when volumes return. Carriers with real-time operational visibility and streamlined back-office processes will have the clearest picture of which lanes and loads actually generate margin in the recovering market.

The carriers who survived 2023-2025 did so by running lean. The question now is whether they can maintain that discipline while capturing the upside ahead.